Rare Earths: Applications and Market Scenario

DR. D.M. MOHUNTA · Commercial, Chemical & Development Company · dmm@ccdcindia.com

In the production of mobile phones, automobiles, LEDs, aircraft engines and airframes, electric vehicles, X‑ray and medical imaging systems, etc., there is a frantic search for rare earth (RE) elements; and sizeable incentives and investments are being planned to combat dependence on China, said to control 80‑95% of the market for RE and RE‑based products.

A lot of publicity is being given to the changeover to electric vehicles (EVs), without realising the minutiae and complexity of the materials used in them. All these headlines will remain just that if close attention is not paid to REs, whose availability in sufficient volumes will be vital.

There are 17 closely related RE elements (Table 1), found in minuscule quantities in minerals but with disproportionate beneficial effect on a product’s functional properties. The first eight are called light REs (LREs) and the others are called heavy REs (HREs).

Table 1 — The rare earth elements

Atomic number	Element	Symbol
21	Scandium**	Sc
39	Yttrium	Y
57	Lanthanum	La
58	Cerium	Ce
59	Praseodymium	Pr
60	Neodymium	Nd
61	Promethium*	Pm
62	Samarium	Sm
63	Europium	Eu
64	Gadolinium	Gd
65	Terbium	Tb
66	Dysprosium	Dy
67	Holmium	Ho
68	Erbium	Er
69	Thulium	Tm
70	Ytterbium	Yb
71	Lutetium	Lu

*Promethium is radioactive and not found in nature. **Scandium is often counted among RE.

Table 2 — Applications of REs

Element	Application
Scandium	Fuel cells, metal halide lamps, aluminium alloys used in jet planes.
Yttrium	Radars, additive within alloys used in high tech devices, lasers.
Lanthanum	Mixed within alloys that are used in batteries and hydrogen vehicles, special glass, camera lenses, catalysts.
Cerium	Light bulbs, TVs and ovens, glass polishing, catalysts, batteries, catalytic converters.
Praseodymium	Aircraft engines, fibre optic cables, magnets.
Neodymium	Magnets and lasers.
Samarium	Microwave devices and magnets.
Europium	Light bulbs, nuclear reactors and lasers.
Gadolinium	Magnets, nuclear reactors and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), lasers.
Terbium	Light bulbs, memory devices and x‑rays.
Dysprosium	Mixed within alloys used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and nuclear reactors.
Holmium	Magnets and nuclear reactors, lasers.
Erbium	Lasers and fibre optic cables.
Thulium	Lasers, portable x‑rays.
Ytterbium	Displays, x‑ray machines, fibre‑optic cables, lasers.
Lutetium	Catalyst.

Scandium

Small quantities of scandium, when added to aluminium alloys, significantly improve tensile strength and physical properties. The first use that comes to mind is aerospace, as it would make for lighter and stronger structures. Other uses: welded gas tanks, dashboard panels, and large stamped and welded structures. The MIG‑29 aircraft is supposed to use Al‑Sc alloy structures. In passenger aviation, Airbus was the first to introduce Al‑Mg‑Sc alloy; their 45% weight reduction of the substituted component reduces fuel consumption and lowers carbon footprint.

There is very large potential for Al‑Sc alloys in the automotive industry if the cost can be brought down. Scandium is also used in tennis rackets, baseball bats, sports cycles, tent poles and mountain climbing gear. Smith & Wesson revolvers are a faster draw as they have become lighter with Al‑Sc alloys.

Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) deliver reliable, efficient and cleaner energy by converting gas into electricity and useable heat (up to 85% efficiency). When Scandia‑Stabilised‑Zirconia (SSZ) is used as the solid electrolyte layer of the SOFC, it allows longer life and higher power density. Bloom Energy (USA) has commercialised it and appears to be the biggest scandium consumer globally.

Scandium‑based lasers have unique properties. Erbium‑chromium:yttrium‑scandium‑gallium‑garnet (Er,Cr:YSGG) lasers are used in dentistry. Gadolinium‑scandium‑gallium garnet (GSGG) lasers have been extensively studied in strategic defence applications (laser defence systems).

There is good possibility of larger‑volume production of scandium, with consequent price decrease, as it occurs in red mud (a waste product during alumina production) and also in waste from titanium dioxide production.

Lanthanum

The major use of lanthanum is in nickel‑metal hydride (NiMH) batteries for automobiles. The quantity of lanthanum may vary from 10‑15 kg per car or even more. Toyota has a long‑term contract with Indian Rare Earths Ltd. (IREL) for lanthanum supply.

Another major use is in catalysts for fluidised catalytic cracking (FCC). The catalysts contain mainly lanthanum and cerium; lanthanum content may be of the order of 1.1‑1.7%. Demand for FCC catalyst may be of the order of 700,000 tpa. Even if all the catalysts do not contain lanthanum, the demand is substantial.

Lanthanum oxide is used in optical glass for cameras and telescopes because of its high refractive index. It also improves the alkali resistance of glass, a very useful property in glass‑lined reactors. Lanthanum salts have medical uses; they are also used in phosphorescent light, along with other REs.

Cerium

Cerium oxides are used for high‑quality polishing of glass and to add a yellow colour to glass. They are also used in catalytic converters for automobiles, flints for lighters, in FCC catalysts, and in tungsten electrodes.

A typical composition of cerium misch metal includes 55% cerium, 25% lanthanum, and 15‑18% neodymium with other rare earth metals. Misch metal is used in metal hydride batteries. A battery‑grade misch metal has 48% cerium, total other rare earths 50%, and the remaining Fe, Si, etc.

Table 3 — RE analysis of FCC catalysts (mean μg/g, RSD%)

REE	Mean (μg/g)	RSD (%)
Y	14.0	5.4
La	13,617.3	2.4
Ce	651.8	6.1
Pr	14.7	2.9
Nd	32.1	1.7
Sm	24.2	2.0
Eu	0.7	6.0
Gd	3.8	2.5
Tb	0.3	9.8
Ho	1.4	1.8
Dy	0.3	1.4
Er	0.7	2.0
Tm	<0.1	3.7
Yb	0.4	4.0
Lu	0.1	6.0
Th	5.7	1.5

Table 4 — RE oxide prices, US$ per tonne

RE Oxide	Price Low	Price High	Average
Lanthanum oxide	1,275	1,350	1,312.5
Cerium oxide	1,335	1,410	1,372.5
Praseodymium oxide	98,250	99,000	98,625
Neodymium oxide	92,250	93,000	92,625
Samarium oxide, per kg	1,950	2,100	2,025
Europium oxide, per kg	28.5	30	29.25
Gadolinium oxide	37,800	38,100	37,950
Gadolinium oxide (high purity)	42,000	42,750	42,375
Terbium oxide, per kg	1,170	1,185	1,177.5
Dysprosium oxide, per kg	382.5	385.5	384
Erbium oxide	30,450	31,200	30,825
Yttrium oxide	5,700	6,000	5,850
NdPr oxide	90,000	90,450	90,225
Holmium oxide	133,500	135,000	134,250
Ytterbium oxide	19,500	21,000	20,250
Lutetium oxide, per kg	720	750	735
Scandium oxide, per kg	945	1,050	997.5

Source: Shanghai Metals Market

Table 5 — RE metal weekly prices, US$

RE Metal	Price Low	Price High	Average
Lanthanum, per tonne	4,125	4,275	4,200
Cerium, per tonne	4,350	4,425	4,388
Praseodymium, per tonne	124,500	127,500	126,000
Neodymium, per tonne	114,000	115,500	114,750
Terbium, per kg	1,500	1,530	1,515
Dysprosium, per kg	495	502.5	499
Yttrium, per kg	33	36	35
Scandium metal, per kg	4,350	5,250	4,800

As on Sep 1, 2021; 1 RMB = 0.15 USD

Table 6 — Battery alloys weekly prices, US$ per tonne

Alloy	Price Low	Price High	Average
Cerium Misch	3,900	4,050	3,975
Lanthanum Cerium Metal (Battery Grade)	4,050	4,200	4,125
Pr-Nd Alloy	111,000	114,000	112,500
Battery Grade Misch	21,000	22,500	21,750
Dy-Iron Alloy	382,500	384,000	383,250
Holmium Ferroalloy	136,500	138,000	137,250
Gadolinium Iron	37,800	39,300	38,550

Table 7 — Price movement over last two years

Item	Sep 1, 2021	Aug 1, 2019	% Change
Metal oxide (US$ per tonne unless noted)
Lanthanum oxide	1,313	1,780	-26.3
Cerium oxide	1,373	1,780	-22.9
Praseodymium oxide	98,630	56,640	+74.1
Neodymium oxide	92,650	42,330	+118.8
Samarium oxide	1,820	1,820	0.0
Europium oxide	29.25	31.95	-8.5
Gadolinium oxide	37,950	23,600	+60.8
Terbium oxide	1,177.5	564.9	+108.4
Dysprosium oxide	384	267.2	+43.7
Erbium oxide	26.5	26.5	0.0
Yttrium oxide	3.05	3.05	0.0
Holmium oxide	134.25	55.91	+140.1
Ytterbium oxide	20.25	16.1	+25.8
Lutetium oxide	735	620	+18.5
Scandium oxide	997.5	1,022	-2.4
Metal (US$ per tonne unless noted)
Lanthanum	4,200	5,160	-18.6
Cerium	4,390	5,010	-12.4
Praseodymium	126,000	101,650	+24.0
Neodymium	114,750	55,550	+106.6
Terbium	1,515	740.61	+104.6
Dysprosium	499	334	+49.4
Yttrium	35	34.13	+2.5
Scandium	4,800	3,202	+49.9

Yttrium

Yttrium is used in concentrations of 0.1‑0.2% as an alloying agent in chromium, molybdenum, zirconium and titanium to reduce grain size. It is used as a deoxidizer for vanadium and other non‑ferrous metals.

Yttrium‑aluminium‑garnets (YAG) have a small use as gemstones; simulating natural diamond, they are costlier than cubic zirconia. A major use is as laser components when combined with a host of REs.

Yttrium is used in alloys which improve magnesium (Mg) castings. When added to cast iron, it makes it more workable. When alloyed with chromium and aluminium it becomes heat resistant.

Yttrium oxides when doped with europium create the red colour in televisions and cathode ray tubes. Many thousands of tonnes are used for this purpose. Yttrium oxide is also used as a glass additive, rendering it heat and shock resistant, and is therefore used in camera lenses. Yttrium‑iron‑garnet (YIG) is used as resonator in frequency meters and in magnetic recording.

Yttrium is an important component of zirconia thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) on jet engine turbine blades and other surfaces subject to very high temperatures. This reduces the temperature of the metal and is said to increase engine life by as much as 50%.

Erbium

Erbium has two main commercial applications: in medical lasers and in fibre optic cables. Erbium lasers have medical and dental uses because they are suited to energy delivery without thermal build‑up in human tissue. In cosmetic treatments, they are used to ablate the epidermis, revealing smoother and younger‑looking skin. In dentistry, erbium lasers are safe and effective for removal of tooth decay and cavity preparation.

The other main use of erbium is in transmitting data through fibre optics. Fibre optic cables contain periodically‑spaced lengths of erbium‑doped fibre, which acts as a laser amplifier. Other uses include colouring glass pink, in nuclear applications and in vanadium alloys.

Terbium

Terbium ions (Tb³⁺) can be used to check for the presence of microbes. When terbium chloride is applied to the test area and illuminated with UV light, any live endospores present will glow green within minutes. Euro banknotes use terbium and other elements: under UV light, a Euro note shows green fluorescence from Tb³⁺, red from europium Eu³⁺, and blue from thulium Tm³⁺.

A terbium‑iron alloy is used to provide metallic films for magneto‑optic recording of data. Hybrid car engines have electric motors and all electric motors are based on magnets. These magnets need to retain their magnetism at high temperatures. Alloying neodymium with terbium and dysprosium produces such magnets. These magnets are also used in electric motors of wind‑turbines, where high temperatures are also generated.

Terfenol‑D (a terbium, iron and dysprosium alloy) expands or contracts in the presence of a magnetic field (magnetostriction). It is used in a speaker called the 'SoundBug', which turns any flat surface into a speaker.

Value chain in RE

The value chain of REs (from lowest to highest) is: RE concentrates → RE oxides → RE compounds → RE metals → RE‑based materials and alloys that directly go into products.

Downstream demand for REs can be divided into five major sectors: permanent magnet materials; catalytic materials; luminescent materials; polishing materials; and hydrogen storage materials. With the rapid development of high‑tech industries, consumption of RE new materials is growing rapidly.

Developments in China

China is the source for 80‑95% of REs, although reams have been written about RE discoveries in Australia, India and other countries. It is a long haul from mining to production of concentrates and to the final product. The issues of polluting wastes and by‑products are still to find a satisfactory solution. China has very large reserves and was quick to permit their exploitation.

The Chinese strategy of becoming almost a monopoly or dominant player has been the same whether it is magnesium, phosphorus, calcium carbide and its downstream products, etc. Initially, a large number of units are allowed of any size, and pollution norms were loose. Once certain dominance is achieved, the industry starts consolidating, introducing more stringent pollution norms, smaller players are merged or eliminated, and minimum capacity norms are raised. Magnesium is a good example. Another example is copper, the environmental norms for which are more stringent than in India.

In case of RE, initially there were more than 100 mines and production units in China. These will eventually be reduced to 5‑10. According to analysts, the mining and refining of REs in China is now monopolised by six major state‑owned enterprises (SOEs). Non‑SOEs only have access to downstream industries such as the production and application of rare earth materials.

In 2020, RE mineral production in China was 140,000 tonnes and smelting and separation by SOEs was about 135,000 tonnes. The capacity of non‑state RE processing industry is estimated at 400,000 tonnes. Global demand is supposed to be 200,000 tonnes, divided equally between China and the rest of the world. A high capacity build‑up against a lower demand is a Chinese phenomenon. There are unconfirmed reports of illegal mining of REs and the government's crackdown may have resulted in shortages.

There is also sizeable diversified R&D activity in the field of RE in China, with dedicated departments in about 26 universities. Another extremely important aspect and a point of maximum value addition, is the method of using the RE and their compounds in diverse products – a minefield of IP rights.

That the market for RE oxides, metals and alloys are quoted on a weekly basis in China shows that there is regular demand and supply and the market has matured. The volumes of RE used in batteries are large enough to have a regular spot market for the RE alloys used in batteries.

In the last couple of years there have been large price increases for REs. The exceptions are La and Ce which are largely produced outside China.

Indian scenario

India has about 6% of the world's reserves of REs. IREL, a public sector company under the administrative control of Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), is the sole producer of REs in India. IREL celebrated its platinum jubilee this year. Its primary purpose was taking up commercial‑scale processing of monazite sand at its first unit at Aluva, Kochi for the recovery of thorium.

IREL commissioned its largest unit, called Orissa Sand Complex in Odisha, and a unit located in Manavalakurichi in Tamilnadu. It produces/sells six heavy minerals: ilmenite, rutile, zircon, monazite, sillimanite, and garnet, as well as various value‑added products.

The Monazite Processing Plant at Orissa has capacity to process 10,000 tpa of monazite to produce 11,220 tpa of RE chlorides, 13,500 tpa of trisodium phosphate, 26 tpa of nuclear grade ammonium di‑uranate (NGADU), etc. Similarly, a High Pure RE facility also commenced operation to refine pure rare earth compounds.

Japanese trading house, Toyota Tsusho, and its wholly‑owned subsidiary, Toyotsu Rare Earths India, has a supply contract for supply of mixed rare earths chloride from IREL. It has been exporting refined rare‑earths to Japan, Europe, the Americas and other nations since 2016.

Table 8 — Production of mixed RE chlorides by IREL (tonnes)

Year	Tonnes
2016‑17	2,265
2017‑18	2,724
2018‑19	4,215

IREL proposes to put up a RE magnet plant at Vizag. Under the Atomic Energy Act, the Atomic Mineral Directorate (AMD) is the sole agency that carries out explorations of these minerals. As of January 2020, 12.47 mt of monazite, containing 55‑60% RE oxides, have been identified in coastal and placer sands.

About 2,000 tons of Xenotime (an Yttrium and RE bearing phosphate mineral) concentrate containing ~2% Xenotime have been identified in placer deposits in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. AMD is carrying out recovery of Xenotime in a plant in Chhattisgarh and has a stockpile of 75.6 tonnes. About 3.46 lakh tonnes of RE oxides, with content ~0.5%, has been estimated at Chotta Udaipur in Gujarat.

IREL has over the decades done extensive R&D work on separation and purification of RE compounds using advanced techniques and is uniquely poised to undertake commercial‑scale production of these. Lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, samarium, neodymium and yttrium are called light RE. India is deficient in heavy RE.

Table 9 — Composition of Monazite sands (oxides)

Oxide	Composition %
RE as RE₂O₃	59.37
P₂O₅	27.03
ThO₂	8.88
U₃O₈	0.35
CaO	1.24
SiO₂	1.0
MgO	0.63
Fe₂O₃	0.32
Al₂O₃	0.12
PbO	0.18
TiO₂	0.36
ZrO₂	0.49

Table 10 — RE part of Monazite sands (oxides, %)

RE oxide	%
Scandium	Nil
Yttrium	0.45
Lanthanum	22
Cerium	46
Praseodymium	5.5
Neodymium	20
Samarium	2.5
Europium	0.015
Gadolinium	1.2
Terbium	0.06
Dysprosium	0.18
Erbium	0.01
Holmium	0.02

Scandium does not occur in monazite. The source is red mud waste during the production of alumina. Red mud contains other important minerals such as titanium dioxide and zirconium. Scandium content may range from 50 to 400 g/tonne of red mud. Approx. 1‑1.5 tonnes of red mud is produced per tonne of alumina.

Considerable research is being done worldwide on value recovery and disposal of red mud. A major challenge is safe disposal of large volumes of hazardous waste. India may be producing approximately 10 mt of red mud per year, which is being simply stored. This could be a source for 1,000 to 3,000 tpa of scandium. With the interest in RE, the JNARDDC announced in 2018 a process for recovering scandium from red mud. A consortium with CSIR laboratories and all aluminium producers in India was formed in April 2021 to move the idea forward.

A European consortium, SCALE, formed in 2020 for recovery of scandium from red mud and titania waste, has moved forward considerably and hopes to achieve a viable production process by 2024. Rio Tinto Canada commenced commercial‑scale production of scandium from titania waste at ~3 tpa in 2021. Presently, the scandium‑producing countries are China (66%), Russia (26%), and Ukraine (7%).

Potential in other countries

Some countries that have potential for RE production include Vietnam, Brazil, Australia, Uganda, Angola, and USA. While Australia and USA are in production stage, others are at exploration and commencement of mining.

Vietnam

Vietnam has two major deposits – Nam Xe and Dong Pao – notable for their vast size (approx. 22 mt). The larger, Nam Xe, is exceptionally rich in higher‑value HREs such as yttrium and europium. Overall, the size of deposits in Vietnam is second only to China.

USA

The sole producer of REs in the USA – California Mountain Pass Mine – closed in late 2015 due to bankruptcy of its owner, Molycorp. These mines returned to production following purchase by MP Materials, in which Shenghe Resources (a partially SOE of China) holds an 8.0% stake. MP Materials currently exports the entire production to Shenghe Resources.

USA Rare Earth LLC is operator and 80% owner of Round Top Heavy Rare Earth in Texas, with joint venture partner Texas Mineral Resources Corp. The project is at an advanced exploratory stage. Hyperion Metal has entered into a research agreement with Dr. Z. Zak Fang at the University of Utah to develop titanium metal powders using HAMR technology, and also owns deposits of monazite and xenotime in Tennessee containing higher percentages of HREs. Rare Element Resources is positioning the Bear Lodge Project in Wyoming as the next North American source.

Australia

Lynas Corporation operates mines at Mt Weld and a concentration/refining plant in Malaysia. Reserves are estimated at 55.4 mt at an average grade of 5.4% TREO. Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) is proposing to mine and process strategic minerals including REs, with a metal plant in South Korea. The Nolans Bore RE‑phosphate‑uranium‑thorium deposit in Northern Australia is promoted by Arafura Resources, with projected annual production of 4,440 tonnes of Nd‑Pr oxide.

Myanmar

Very little is known about RE reserves in Myanmar, but mining is being done in the State of Kachin bordering China. According to Chinese customs data, China is heavily dependent on medium and HREs from Myanmar. In 2020, RE imports from Myanmar rose by 23% to ~35,500 tonnes, accounting for 74% of imports.

Tanzania

Peak Resources Ltd. (Australian) owns the Ngualla Rare Earth mines in southern Tanzania – one of the world's largest undeveloped Nd‑Pr RE projects. Ore reserves estimated at 18.5 mt grading 4.80% REO. The company plans to export ~32,700 tpa of RE concentrate to the Teesside (UK) refinery, targeted to commence production by 2025.

Greenland

The Kvanefjeld project (owned by Greenland Minerals and Energy, with possible Chinese shareholding) contains 1 billion tonnes of mineralised ore with ~11 mt of REOs. The project is in serious difficulty for political reasons and may be delayed.

Sweden

Leading Edge Materials Corp. (Canada) has been leased the Norra Karr area. Preliminary assessments indicate total mineral resources of 110 mt, with TREO content 5,341 tonnes; main magnet REOs (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) account for 1,005 tonnes.

Angola

Pensana PLC (London‑based) has a 35‑year lease in the Longonjo mines. Total reserves are 313 mt at 1.43% REO, including 990,000 tonnes of Nd‑Pr. The Chinese SOE CGWIC will probably build the mine and potentially finance up to 85% of the initial US$160m required.

Uganda

Ionic Rare Earths (Australian) is actively exploring the Makuutu Rare Earth Project. Total reserves estimated at 315 mt with TREO content 650 ppm (204,750 tonnes TREO). 73% of this is high‑value REO with scandium equivalent to 9,470 tonnes. Ionic has signed MOUs with subsidiaries of Chinalco and China Rare Metals. Altona Rare Earths has also acquired an option over the Nankoma project in Uganda.

South Africa / Burundi (East Africa)

Rainbow Rare Earths owns the Phalaborwa project in South Africa (inferred 38.3 mt at 0.43% TREO in gypsum tailings). Trial mining at the Gakara Project in Burundi shows high‑grade concentrates with ~54% TREO and high Nd‑Pr content (~19.5% of contained TREO).

Namibia

Namibia Critical Metals (Canadian) is developing the Lofdal project in partnership with JOGMEC (Japanese government entity), with potential for significant dysprosium and terbium production. Total mineral resources 6.16 mt with REO content of 18,207 tonnes, of which 75.5% is HREO.

Malawi

Mkango Resources Ltd. (Canadian) is developing mines in Malawi with potential mineral resource of 21.03 mt at 1.41% TREO (297,400 tonnes). A concentration and separation plant is being planned in Poland.

Conclusions

REs will be absolutely essential for future progress in areas like renewable energy, aviation, electronics, lighting, etc. Their use will only grow as more R&D is done to show their benefits.

China has been the major supplier of REs for almost a decade, but fears of serious supply chain disruptions have spurred a worldwide search for alternative RE resources. While these have largely been successful, the journey from discovery to finished useable RE is a long haul that may take up to ten years or more. What is clear is that there are sufficient mineable resources – more than 1.5 billion tonnes with a TREO content exceeding 1 mt.

But reaching the stage of shippable concentrates is an arduous, time‑consuming process. Each deposit has its own characteristics and R&D is a must. The entire process needs hundreds of millions of dollars, and most companies are listed in London, New York or Australian stock exchanges. Besides this, there is the political risk of government permissions and licences. Greenland is an example of such risk – a new Government wants to overturn the process after the mining company spent almost US$100 million.

If even 50% of the projects at the exploration stage reach final stage of shipping concentrates, there will be a glut in the market in 7‑10 years.

The next important step of value addition is the processing of concentrates to separate the RE and convert them for end‑use products. In this area, knowledge is scarce, and can be overcome by tie‑ups with existing processors and universities. A ready resource is the huge processing capacity in China, but geopolitical considerations cause hesitancy. As an aside, no Indian industrialist, whatever be his capacity to finance, will risk millions of dollars on lab chemistry of an Indian professor! IREL is the only Indian organisation that has built up capability in this area and could play a role in consultancy to these international mining firms.

The refining processes use highly corrosive materials and produce very large quantities of by‑products and pollutants, and that is perhaps one of the reasons processing developed mainly in China. The disposal of by‑products and reduction of pollutant levels will add to costs.

One point of concern – to India and others – could be the increasing supply of lanthanum and cerium, as they form the maximum percentage of the RE. Their prices may get depressed to uneconomic levels.

There is a large worldwide move towards EVs, but growth is likely to be subdued for some time until the supply of Nd‑Pr magnets picks up. From the next year RE supply will start easing and could reach comfort levels by 2024/25. A glut may be expected by 2028‑30, but hopefully by that time demand would also increase to absorb the increased production. China’s 80‑95% share in the processed RE may well get reduced to 50‑60%.